Indian Stock Market Blog | Stock Market Baba

Baba's wisdom on the Indian Stock Market

Wishes for Diwali and Samvat 2066

StockMarketBaba.in wishes all its readers a very Happy Diwali and a great Samvat 2066. On this occasion, baba will carry a series of posts on stocks which make decent investment bets (medium to long term) based on today’s market scenario.

Needless to remind that the Muhurat Trading will be observed today from 1815 hrs to 1925 hrs, and it is considered auspicious to book a token profit in the market.

The volatility index India VIX

India VIX is a volatility index which tries to capture the market’s expectation of volatility in the near term.

From NSE’s website, India VIX is a volatility index based on the Nifty 50 Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of Nifty 50 Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.

The higher the volatility index, the more is the price of the underlyinig security expected to vary, and then higher the risk. Or to an investor who has taken a fundamentally strong position, more are the chances of higher returns in the near future.

Should investors and traders also look at India VIX before executing a trade? Please share your views using comments.

Here is the link to NSE’s website on the subject
India VIX

Pipavav Shipyard IPO Analysis and Review

Pipavav Shipyard IPO opens on September 16 and closes on September 18. The IPO comprises of a public offer of 85.45 million equity shares of Rs. 10 each, through book building.

The proceeds from the Pipavav Shipyard IPO are to be used for construction of facilities for shipbuilding and repair primarily, and for the offshore business and as margin for working capital.

The shipbuilding business is frought with revenue fluctuations and order cancellations. Moreover, the money being raised is directly for investment in the ship building capabilities, which will take a lot of time to turn revenue accretive. Considering that the world economy is still recovering from the slowdown, Pipavav Shipyard might not get a barrage of new orders right away.

In the next 2 years, there will be many chances to buy the Pipavav Shipyard stock at cheaper valuations that the IPO. Very long term investors should put their money in the Pipavav Shipyard IPO. Short and medium term investors might not make an immediate buck in the process.

Baba recommends staying away from the IPO, but certainly buying the stock at cheaper valuations later on.

OIL India IPO Analysis, Review

Oil India IPO Review and Analysis

What is OIL India Limited

Oil India Limited (OIL) is engaged in the business of exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of crude oil and production of LPG. OIL also provides various E&P related services and holds 26% equity in Numaligarh Refinery Limited.
[Read the rest of this entry...]

Dish TV Stock Analysis

Dish TV Stock Analysis
Analysis: Dish TV is a Buy

Dish TV Analysis: Investment Rationale
Warren Buffet has said that he invests in businesses that he understands. Let us try to understand the Dish TV business

  • Dish TV provides clear, DVD quality video transmission, and stereophonic sound/audio transmission for most of India’s satellite channels
  • Dish TV has more reach than traditional cable
  • Medium Income Group households who prefer quality and ease over price (the non price sensitive market) will certainly opt for a DTH service. Dish TV has the advantage of being an early mover and having a host of value added services (integration with travel, matrimony and job products). Being close to profitable, DishTV can easily handle the price wars in the DTH market
  • Dish TV has shown thought leadership in this space by tying up with Indian Railways for DTH services in Rajdhani etc.
  • Dish TV has a strong brand ambassador in Shahrukh Khan
  • First mover advantage – ~1 year lead over nearest competitor and ~ 3 year lead over others
  • Leader in the DTH industry – largest subscriber base ~ 5.5 mm (Jun-09)

Ok, why will Dish TV be successul against the likes of Bharti, Tata Sky, Reliance and others?

Thats the question that Dish TV’s management would have to answer for itself. For us, Dish TV is the only listed player in the space and the space is too big to ignore else why would Bharti, Reliance etc. would have wanted to enter this space.

The summary of Dish TV analysis is that the stock is Dish TV is a buy. You can search for more short and medium term stock tips on Dish TV elsewhere on the internet, but purely from the perspective of an emerging the business, the DTH business is very exciting and has huge market potential.

Dish TV is in my portfolio, but that by no means is an indication or a suggestion for you to buy it. You should consult a certified financial planner before dealing in any security.

Dish TV Analyst Coverage

dish tv - Google News
©2010 Google

Dish TV launches Traffic Active - India Infoline.com
Dish TV Q1 losses dip to Rs 63.17 - Business Standard
RC Venkateish appointed CEO, Dish TV - domain-B
Dish to FCC: Comcast blocking Philly sports access - The Associated Press
So You Think You Can Dance Judges Spoil Their Own Double Elimination (142) - E! Online (blog)
Indian DTH firms bet on premium services but cost a worry - Moneycontrol.com
Dish TV India Q1 loss at Rs 63.17 crores - Equity Bulls
Dish TV ties up with Ten Sports for Micromax Cricket Cup - Business Standard
Bits & bytes - Financial Express
Foreign tie-ups may boost stocks of Dish TV, Den Networks & Hathway Cable - Economic Times

Beta of Sensex Stocks

How to find beta of sensex stocks?

The website of Bombay Stock exchange www.bseindia.com has a section that carries the one year beta values of the stocks that compose the sensex.

http://www.bseindia.com/about/abindices/betavalues.asp

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Do you know the beta of stocks in your portfolio?

Do you know the beta of the stocks you are trading in?
If no, should you make an attempt to know?

Let us understand what beta is and how can the stock’s beta be used to make meaningful trading/investment decisions

What is beta?

Beta is a ratio. The ratio of returns given by a stock to the returns given by the benchmark index.
Higher this ratio, the higher is the price volatility of the stock compared to the index (e.g. sensex)

If a stock has a beta lower than 1, this means that the stock will be less volatile compared to the sensex. A stock with higher beta will have more volatility compared to the index.

Beta and Returns

Stocks with high beta tend to give more returns in a uptrending market, however, they give large negative returns when the market is going down. A stock whose beta is 1.5 will give 50% higher returns in a bullish market and 1.5 times negative returns than those from sensex when the market is going down

Beta and Risk

Obviously, more returns cannot come without more risks. High beta stocks are riskly since they may result in the capital getting stuck in the market because of sharp negative returns if the market is going down.

Beta and you?

So, how do you use beta? Beta can be used profitably for short term trading decisions when the direction of the market and the overall sentiment is clearly known.

When the markets are going down, investors can park their money in low beta stocks and sectors like pharma and fmcg.

Traders can also minimize the risk and increase the gain by investing in fundamentally good high beta stocks

Upcoming Exchange Holidays

The month of September will see 2 exchange holidays each for Eid and Dussera.

Here is the complete Exchange Holiday Calendar (remaining holidays only)
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Adani Power IPO Allotment Status

Most of you would have checked the Adani Power IPO allotment status today at karvy’s website. For those who haven’t, here’s the link

http://mis.karvycomputershare.com/ipo/

The Adani Power IPO should give decent listing gains.

Adani Power IPO listing date, allotment status

Adani Power IPO was a huge success and investors should get good listing gains from the IPO. Adani Power IPO listing date should tentatively be the 20th of August

Adani Power IPO Summary
Adani Power IPO Issue Size : 248794681 shares
Total Bids Received for : 5384180945 shares
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price : 244062845 shares
No. of times issue is subscribed : 21.64

Investors interested in Adani Power IPO allotment status might want to subscribe to the RSS feed to get updated automatically when the ipo allotment is out.